Countries need to increase their targets by about six times, or at least 43%, to align with what the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change believes is enough to meet the target. the Paris Agreement to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees F), he says.
“It really does seem like we’re hitting a bit of a plateau,” Taryn Fransen, WRI senior researcher and report author, said in an interview. She added that the COVID-19 pandemic and economic difficulties may have primarily limited countries’ ambitions to strengthen their NDCs since 2021.
The current NDCs propose to reduce emissions by 5.5 gigatonnes from the original 2015 NDCs, nearly equivalent to eliminating annual US emissions. But only 10% of this planned reduction has been promised since 2021.
On the positive side, Australia and Indonesia have increased their NDCs this year. “It allowed us to progress,” Fransen said, “but there wasn’t much beyond that.” Paris Agreement countries are required to update their NDCs by 2025.
“If the pace of improvement from 2016 to today continues, the world will not only miss the Paris Agreement goals, it will miss them by a long shot,” the report said.